Time-to-Death approach in revealing Chronicity and Severity of COVID-19 across the World.
Identifieur interne : 000360 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000359; suivant : 000361Time-to-Death approach in revealing Chronicity and Severity of COVID-19 across the World.
Auteurs : Vivek Verma [Inde] ; Ramesh K. Vishwakarma [Arabie saoudite] ; Anita Verma [Inde] ; Dilip C. Nath [Inde] ; Hafiz T A. Khan [Royaume-Uni]Source :
- PloS one [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- mortalité : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- pathogénicité : Betacoronavirus.
- Facteurs temps, Humains, Indice de gravité de la maladie, Modèles linéaires, Pandémies, Quarantaine, Santé mondiale.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- mortality : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- pathogenicity : Betacoronavirus.
- Global Health, Humans, Linear Models, Pandemics, Quarantine, Severity of Illness Index, Time Factors.
Abstract
BACKGROUND
The outbreak of coronavirus disease, 2019 (COVID-19), which started from Wuhan, China, in late 2019, have spread worldwide. A total of 5,91,971 cases and 2,70,90 deaths were registered till 28th March, 2020. We aimed to predict the impact of duration of exposure to COVID-19 on the mortality rates increment.
METHODS
In the present study, data on COVID-19 infected top seven countries viz., Germany, China, France, United Kingdom, Iran, Italy and Spain, and World as a whole, were used for modeling. The analytical procedure of generalized linear model followed by Gompertz link function was used to predict the impact lethal duration of exposure on the mortality rates.
FINDINGS
Of the selected countries and World as whole, the projection based on 21st March, 2020 cases, suggest that a total (95% Cl) of 76 (65-151) days of exposure in Germany, mortality rate will increase by 5 times to 1%. In countries like France and United Kingdom, our projection suggests that additional exposure of 48 days and 7 days, respectively, will raise the mortality rates to10%. Regarding Iran, Italy and Spain, mortality rate will rise to 10% with an additional 3-10 days of exposure. World's mortality rates will continue increase by 1% in every three weeks. The predicted interval of lethal duration corresponding to each country has found to be consistent with the mortality rates observed on 28th March, 2020.
CONCLUSION
The prediction of lethal duration was found to have apparently effective in predicting mortality, and shows concordance with prevailing rates. In absence of any vaccine against COVID-19 infection, the present study adds information about the quantum of the severity and time elapsed to death will help the Government to take necessary and appropriate steps to control this pandemic.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0233074
PubMed: 32396542
PubMed Central: PMC7217458
Affiliations:
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Vishwakarma</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center/King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences-MNGHA, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Arabie saoudite</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center/King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences-MNGHA, Riyadh</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Riyadh</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Verma, Anita" sort="Verma, Anita" uniqKey="Verma A" first="Anita" last="Verma">Anita Verma</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Departments of Neurology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi, India.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country><wicri:regionArea>Departments of Neurology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>New Delhi</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nath, Dilip C" sort="Nath, Dilip C" uniqKey="Nath D" first="Dilip C" last="Nath">Dilip C. Nath</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Assam University, Silchar, Assam, India.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country><wicri:regionArea>Assam University, Silchar, Assam</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Assam</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Khan, Hafiz T A" sort="Khan, Hafiz T A" uniqKey="Khan H" first="Hafiz T A" last="Khan">Hafiz T A. Khan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>The Graduate School, University of West London, Ealing, London, England, United Kingdom.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>The Graduate School, University of West London, Ealing, London, England</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>England</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PloS one</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Betacoronavirus (pathogenicity)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (mortality)</term><term>Global Health (MeSH)</term><term>Humans (MeSH)</term><term>Linear Models (MeSH)</term><term>Pandemics (MeSH)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (mortality)</term><term>Quarantine (MeSH)</term><term>Severity of Illness Index (MeSH)</term><term>Time Factors (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Betacoronavirus (pathogénicité)</term><term>Facteurs temps (MeSH)</term><term>Humains (MeSH)</term><term>Indice de gravité de la maladie (MeSH)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (mortalité)</term><term>Modèles linéaires (MeSH)</term><term>Pandémies (MeSH)</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (mortalité)</term><term>Quarantaine (MeSH)</term><term>Santé mondiale (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortalité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="pathogenicity" xml:lang="en"><term>Betacoronavirus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="pathogénicité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Betacoronavirus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Global Health</term><term>Humans</term><term>Linear Models</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Quarantine</term><term>Severity of Illness Index</term><term>Time Factors</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Facteurs temps</term><term>Humains</term><term>Indice de gravité de la maladie</term><term>Modèles linéaires</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Quarantaine</term><term>Santé mondiale</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>BACKGROUND</b></p><p>The outbreak of coronavirus disease, 2019 (COVID-19), which started from Wuhan, China, in late 2019, have spread worldwide. A total of 5,91,971 cases and 2,70,90 deaths were registered till 28th March, 2020. We aimed to predict the impact of duration of exposure to COVID-19 on the mortality rates increment.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>METHODS</b></p><p>In the present study, data on COVID-19 infected top seven countries viz., Germany, China, France, United Kingdom, Iran, Italy and Spain, and World as a whole, were used for modeling. The analytical procedure of generalized linear model followed by Gompertz link function was used to predict the impact lethal duration of exposure on the mortality rates.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>FINDINGS</b></p><p>Of the selected countries and World as whole, the projection based on 21st March, 2020 cases, suggest that a total (95% Cl) of 76 (65-151) days of exposure in Germany, mortality rate will increase by 5 times to 1%. In countries like France and United Kingdom, our projection suggests that additional exposure of 48 days and 7 days, respectively, will raise the mortality rates to10%. Regarding Iran, Italy and Spain, mortality rate will rise to 10% with an additional 3-10 days of exposure. World's mortality rates will continue increase by 1% in every three weeks. The predicted interval of lethal duration corresponding to each country has found to be consistent with the mortality rates observed on 28th March, 2020.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>CONCLUSION</b></p><p>The prediction of lethal duration was found to have apparently effective in predicting mortality, and shows concordance with prevailing rates. In absence of any vaccine against COVID-19 infection, the present study adds information about the quantum of the severity and time elapsed to death will help the Government to take necessary and appropriate steps to control this pandemic.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32396542</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>18</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>30</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic-eCollection"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1932-6203</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>15</Volume><Issue>5</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>PloS one</Title><ISOAbbreviation>PLoS ONE</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Time-to-Death approach in revealing Chronicity and Severity of COVID-19 across the World.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>e0233074</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1371/journal.pone.0233074</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND">The outbreak of coronavirus disease, 2019 (COVID-19), which started from Wuhan, China, in late 2019, have spread worldwide. A total of 5,91,971 cases and 2,70,90 deaths were registered till 28th March, 2020. We aimed to predict the impact of duration of exposure to COVID-19 on the mortality rates increment.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS">In the present study, data on COVID-19 infected top seven countries viz., Germany, China, France, United Kingdom, Iran, Italy and Spain, and World as a whole, were used for modeling. The analytical procedure of generalized linear model followed by Gompertz link function was used to predict the impact lethal duration of exposure on the mortality rates.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="FINDINGS">Of the selected countries and World as whole, the projection based on 21st March, 2020 cases, suggest that a total (95% Cl) of 76 (65-151) days of exposure in Germany, mortality rate will increase by 5 times to 1%. In countries like France and United Kingdom, our projection suggests that additional exposure of 48 days and 7 days, respectively, will raise the mortality rates to10%. Regarding Iran, Italy and Spain, mortality rate will rise to 10% with an additional 3-10 days of exposure. World's mortality rates will continue increase by 1% in every three weeks. The predicted interval of lethal duration corresponding to each country has found to be consistent with the mortality rates observed on 28th March, 2020.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSION">The prediction of lethal duration was found to have apparently effective in predicting mortality, and shows concordance with prevailing rates. In absence of any vaccine against COVID-19 infection, the present study adds information about the quantum of the severity and time elapsed to death will help the Government to take necessary and appropriate steps to control this pandemic.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Verma</LastName><ForeName>Vivek</ForeName><Initials>V</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0003-2537-4431</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Departments of Neurology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi, India.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Vishwakarma</LastName><ForeName>Ramesh K</ForeName><Initials>RK</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center/King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences-MNGHA, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author 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DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>12</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>PLoS One</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101285081</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1932-6203</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><SupplMeshList><SupplMeshName Type="Disease" UI="C000657245">COVID-19</SupplMeshName><SupplMeshName Type="Organism" UI="C000656484">severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</SupplMeshName></SupplMeshList><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000073640" MajorTopicYN="Y">Betacoronavirus</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000472" MajorTopicYN="N">pathogenicity</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="Y">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="N">mortality</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014943" MajorTopicYN="N">Global 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IdType="pubmed">32052846</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Arabie saoudite</li><li>Inde</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li></country></list><tree><country name="Inde"><noRegion><name sortKey="Verma, Vivek" sort="Verma, Vivek" uniqKey="Verma V" first="Vivek" last="Verma">Vivek Verma</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Nath, Dilip C" sort="Nath, Dilip C" uniqKey="Nath D" first="Dilip C" last="Nath">Dilip C. Nath</name><name sortKey="Verma, Anita" sort="Verma, Anita" uniqKey="Verma A" first="Anita" last="Verma">Anita Verma</name></country><country name="Arabie saoudite"><noRegion><name sortKey="Vishwakarma, Ramesh K" sort="Vishwakarma, Ramesh K" uniqKey="Vishwakarma R" first="Ramesh K" last="Vishwakarma">Ramesh K. Vishwakarma</name></noRegion></country><country name="Royaume-Uni"><noRegion><name sortKey="Khan, Hafiz T A" sort="Khan, Hafiz T A" uniqKey="Khan H" first="Hafiz T A" last="Khan">Hafiz T A. Khan</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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